Payam Javan: U.S. drivers are heading into Labor Day weekend with the lowest gasoline prices in five years, according to a new analysis from GasBuddy. The fuel-tracking firm projects the national average at $3.15 per gallon, compared with $3.29 a year ago and $3.77 in 2023. Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis, called it the “cheapest summer” for motorists since the pandemic, though he cautioned that hurricane season, trade disputes, and the ongoing war in Ukraine could still disrupt supply.

Localized refinery outages have pushed prices higher in parts of the Midwest, including after flooding temporarily halted operations at BP’s Whiting Refinery in Indiana. Still, De Haan expects national prices to drop below $3 a gallon this fall, in line with forecasts from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, which anticipates an 11 percent decline through December as the industry shifts to lower-cost winter fuel.

The broader trend is being driven by weaker oil markets. West Texas Intermediate crude has fallen about 11 percent this year to $64 a barrel, while Brent has slipped nearly 10 percent below $68. Robust output from the U.S. and OPEC+ members, tepid demand growth, and swelling global inventories have weighed on prices. Analysts say geopolitical risks remain, but forecasts suggest Brent could average $67 a barrel in 2025 and move lower into 2026.