Social Security retirement benefits could face a significant reduction in the coming years if Congress does not address the program’s funding shortfall. The Congressional Budget Office projects that the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund will exhaust its reserves in 2032. Under current law, once those reserves are depleted, incoming revenue would no longer be sufficient to pay the full benefits scheduled for retirees.
The 2026 Social Security Trustees report similarly projects that the OASI Trust Fund will run out of reserves in the fourth quarter of 2032. At that point, continuing program income is projected to cover about 78% of scheduled retirement and survivors’ benefits, implying a 22% gap if no legislative changes are made. The Trustees also project that the percentage of benefits payable would gradually decline to 62% by 2100.
The Congressional Budget Office has modeled a somewhat different scenario in which benefits are limited to amounts payable from dedicated funding sources after the OASI trust fund is exhausted. In that analysis, CBO estimates an average benefit reduction of about 28% annually from 2033 through 2036, although the precise size of any future reduction would depend on how Congress changes the program. The agency emphasizes that current law does not prescribe a specific method for reducing benefits.
Social Security’s two trust funds are legally separate. The Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Fund is projected to maintain positive reserves throughout the 75-year projection period. If the OASI and DI funds were combined, the Trustees estimate that reserves would last until the third quarter of 2034, after which continuing income would be sufficient to pay about 83% of scheduled benefits. Combining the funds would require a change in law.
The Trustees have said that lawmakers have multiple options for addressing the long-term financing gap and that earlier action would provide more time to phase in changes and allow the public to prepare. The projections are estimates based on assumptions about demographics, the economy and future program conditions, meaning the actual financial outlook could change. Without legislative action, however, the current projections indicate that Social Security’s retirement program will not have enough trust-fund reserves to continue paying all scheduled benefits after 2032.
