John Sitilides, senior fellow for global risks at the Center for the National Interest, said the latest escalation with Iran marks a return to kinetic activity, with the Trump administration seeking to maintain pressure on Tehran while preserving what he described as an escalation ladder.

Sitilides said President Donald Trump has made clear that the United States would respond to Iranian attacks with significantly greater force. He also highlighted widespread corruption within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the challenge facing Washington and its allies in assisting Iran’s population while confronting the regime that has ruled the country since 1979.

Sitilides expressed hope that Iran’s professional military, known as the Artesh, could play a role in changing the country’s political trajectory. He said the force may be less willing than the IRGC to accept further harm to the Iranian population, raising the possibility that elements within Iran could eventually turn against the government.

The analyst also discussed the broader economic consequences of U.S. pressure and military strikes, including Trump’s engagement with oil and gas retailers and refiners and the potential implications for Venezuela. According to Sitilides, the IRGC has so far shown little willingness to back down, leaving the United States and its allies with the difficult task of either persuading the organization to relent or encouraging another force inside Iran to challenge the regime.

Looking beyond Iran, Sitilides said Trump’s upcoming meeting with Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping is expected to address Beijing’s support for Tehran. He also pointed to concerns in China that Xi could face a difficult reception from members of the U.S. Congress, adding another layer of tension to an already complex U.S.-China relationship.